Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR)
Stay current with economic and mortgage market trends.
HaMMR Digest
Catch up on each week’s housing headlines and find out what the data really says, so you can make the right decisions for your business. HaMMR author Parker Ross and Director of Real Estate Economics Leonidas Mourelatos provide in-depth analysis in the HaMMRSM Digest posted on our Insights platform.
4/15/24 – Confidence Roller Coaster
How much longer will rates remain elevated after last week’s “hot” inflation data?
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Housing Update Webinar
Get expert analysis of the current housing market. In our complimentary Housing Update webinars, HaMMR author and Arch’s Chief Economist Parker Ross shares his thoughts on the current factors affecting housing and where the industry is headed in the coming year.
February Housing UpdateA New Dawn or False Hope for Homebuying?
Do recent signs in housing point to robust homebuying activity this spring — or more disappointment?
HaMMRSM Digest authors Parker Ross (Arch Chief Economist) and Leonidas Mourelatos (Director of Real Estate Economics) analyze the risks and hopeful signs impacting housing — and the overall economy — over the next few months.
HaMMR
Published quarterly, Arch MI’s Housing and Mortgage Market Review® (HaMMR) analyzed key economic factors and forecasted long-term industry trends. In 2022, it transitioned to HaMMR Digest, a weekly roundup of time-sensitive data that offers an up-to-date snapshot of the housing market.
Past Issues
Weekly HaMMR Digests
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04/15/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Confidence Roller CoasterHow much longer will rates remain elevated after last week’s “hot” inflation data?
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04/08/2024 — HaMMR Digest
American ExceptionalismWill the Fed cancel rate cuts in response to strong job growth?
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04/01/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Consumer ResiliencyWill consumer spending resiliency delay further cooling in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure?
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03/25/2024 — HaMMR Digest
No SurprisesWill the Fed cut rates in time to jolt the spring homebuying season?
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03/18/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Confidence GamesWill last week’s soft retail sales and hot inflation data alter the Fed’s outlook for rate cuts in ‘24?
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03/11/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Pick your PoisonJob growth is strong, but unemployment is rising. Which is sending the right signal?
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03/04/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Toe the LineWas the pullback in January consumer discretionary spending a blip or a warning signal?
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02/20/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Signal Or Noise?Should the Fed be worried about inflationary pressures reigniting?
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02/12/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Status QuoDoes the economy risk heating back up as credit conditions ease?
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02/05/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Decisions, DecisionsAfter the strong January jobs report, are rate cuts off the table?
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01/22/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Here Comes the SunRates have come down, but when will it translate to higher home sales?
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01/08/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Back to BusinessAfter proving most economists wrong in 2023 — but not the Arch Global Economics team — will the economy finally succumb to recession in 2024?
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12/18/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Gift That Keeps on GivingWill “talking about rate cuts” mark the bottom for this housing cycle?
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12/11/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Naughty or Nice?Is the labor market “glass half-full” or “glass half-empty”?
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12/04/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Lumps of Coal or Gelt in the Stocking?Are Markets Getting Too Hopeful for Early Fed Rate Cuts?
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11/20/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Perfectly Plated -
11/06/2023 — HaMMR Digest
A Shot Across the BowThe Fed is finally getting what it wants, but can it pull up in time to stick the landing?
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10/30/2023 — HaMMR Digest
No Trick All Treat…For NowFed will not be spooked by the third quarter’s strong GDP report.
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10/16/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Hurry Up and WaitAre more rate hikes ahead in response to the recent rebound in inflation?
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10/09/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Nothing to Fear but Fear ItselfWill hot jobs report force the Fed’s hand?
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10/02/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Incoming Fog DelayedWill financial market volatility be the final straw that breaks the economic cycle’s back?
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09/18/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Potential Tempest AheadWill a convergence of risk events derail the Fed’s soft landing hopes?
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09/12/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Storm ChasingIs it time to panic, now that the unemployment rate has jumped to 3.8%?
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08/28/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Feared Tidal Wave Washes Ashore as a RippleHas the economy run out of steam after a hot start to 3Q23?
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08/21/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Mind the Rip TideGrowth is holding firm despite surging interest rates. Can the Fed still stick the soft landing?
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08/15/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Anchor Beginning to SetCooling underlying inflation pressures too good to be true?
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08/07/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Calming SeasNormalizing job growth, steady economic activity and cooling inflation. What’s the Fed not to like?
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07/24/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Sailing Through the SwellsIs the stage set for the Fed’s final rate hike?
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07/17/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Consumers Buoyed by Cooling InflationCan the Fed declare ‘Mission Accomplished’ on inflation?
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07/10/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Making HeadwayHow can home prices be within 1% of last year’s peak while job growth slows?
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06/26/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Tide is TurningCan the housing market keep the broader economy out of recession?
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06/20/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Topsy-TurvyWill the latest inflation data allow the Fed to end its hiking cycle?
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06/12/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Shipshape?Could the recent surge in initial jobless claims indicate an impending economic downturn?
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06/06/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Cross CurrentsWhat will define the next phase of this abnormal housing cycle?
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05/15/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Tidal Wave or Rough Chop?Inflation continued to cool, so are Fed rate cuts ahead?
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05/08/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Let the Lighthouse Guide You Through the StormThe Fed left the door cracked for further tightening, but will the upcoming inflation report blow it wide open?
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05/01/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Banking Squall Redux?Will First Republic derail the Fed from hiking one more time?
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04/24/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Perfect StormWho is poised to successfully navigate through the housing market’s perfect storm?
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04/17/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Calm or Choppy Waters Ahead?Smooth sailing ahead with inflation coming down and the Fed’s hiking cycle nearing an end?
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04/10/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Time to Trim the SailsHow can jobless claims and home prices be rising at the same time?
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04/04/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Squall PassesWill the Fed continue to hike now that the banking squall has passed?
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03/28/2023 — HaMMR Digest
A Ballast in the StormHas the Fed reached the end of the road for this hiking cycle?
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03/21/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Fast and FuriousCan the Fed tango with inflation while a banking crisis simmers?
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03/13/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Panic Flips the ScriptWill the Fed give up its inflation fight and focus on financial stability risk?
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03/06/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Eye of the StormCan the housing market and broader economy take one final blow from renewed rate volatility?
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02/28/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Heat Is OnStrong consumer spending is driving up interest rates — decreasing overall housing demand — while new home sales increased.
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02/21/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Curb Your EnthusiasmPositive economic data indicates “stickier” inflation — pushing interest rates higher as recent housing gains stall.
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01/30/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Mind the Details4Q GDP growth shielding weakness as higher interest rates hamper manufacturing, consumer spending and, soon, labor.
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01/23/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Hope Springs EternalThe direction of the overall economy remains uncertain, but tentative signs indicate housing may be nearing stabilization.
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01/09/2023 — HaMMR Digest
What Lies Ahead?Economic activity and labor demand softened at year’s end, signaling more modest mortgage rate hikes in the months ahead.
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12/12/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Looking ForwardAll eyes are on the Fed meeting this week, which is expected to deliver a new hike even as mortgage rates trend lower.
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12/05/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Holiday Cheers and JeersThe job market remains strong and the housing market recalibrates to rates that are likely to stay higher for longer.
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11/21/2022 — HaMMR Digest
The Good, the Bad and the UglyEven as disinflationary pressures build and household balance sheets remain strong, housing sales continue to drop.
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11/14/2022 — HaMMR Digest
False Dawn?As core inflation slows significantly, the Fed is expected to end its hiking cycle with rates around 5%.
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11/07/2022 — HaMMR Digest
The Talons Come OutFed raises rates by 75 bps, the labor market remains tight and housing continues to slow.
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10/31/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Trick or Treat?Despite some cooling of wage and inflation data, this week sees another rate hike as the housing market correction continues.
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10/24/2022 — HaMMR Digest
A Chill in the AirExisting home sales cool as affordability deteriorates, inventory swells and the Fed contends with a strong labor market.
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10/17/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Missing the MarkSignificant rate hikes are increasingly likely over the next two months as forecasters continue underestimating inflation. Weaker jobs data could relieve pricing pressures.
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10/10/2022 — HaMMR Digest
It’s a StartJob data cools but the Fed stands firm as labor remains tight and the data reflects a modest economic expansion.
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09/26/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Message ReceivedThe Fed takes a hawkish stance as the latest data supports more softening of the housing market.
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09/12/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Green LightsJob growth slower but still strong, as mortgage rates surge to multi-decade high.
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08/29/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Pain on the Road to StabilityWhile key economic data improves, more rate hikes are on the way – and likely to last longer than expected.
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08/22/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Housing Recession?Home sales, construction and builder sentiment drop, but a healthier equilibrium is on the way.
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08/15/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Don’t Get Your Hopes UpHeadline CPI declines, but overall inflation remains high despite cooling energy and core goods costs.
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08/01/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Technical FoulAnother 75bps rate hike, the second straight decline in real GDP and home prices continue to decelerate.
Quarterly HaMMR Reports
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09/20/2022 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Issue 3-2022Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Issue 3-2022
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06/02/2022 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Issue 2-2022Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Issue 2-2022
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02/24/2022 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2022Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2022
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04/07/2021 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Spring 2021Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Spring 2021
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01/07/2021 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2021Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2021
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08/01/2020 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Summer 2020Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Summer 2020
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01/01/2020 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2020Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2020
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07/01/2019 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Summer 2019Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Summer 2019
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04/01/2019 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Spring 2019Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Spring 2019
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01/01/2019 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2019Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2019
About the HaMMR Digest
Arch Global Chief Economist (and author of the quarterly HaMMR report) Parker Ross and Director of Real Estate Economics Leonidas Mourelatos cover the week’s headlines in the U.S. and abroad, break down the data and assess the impact on the housing market and the larger economy.
Each HaMMR Digest release provides detailed, current information that you can use, share and build on in your business. Follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter to receive notification of each new release.
About Parker Ross
As Chief Economist, Parker is responsible for overall economic surveillance and forecasting for the Global Mortgage group. In addition to the HaMMR Digest, he is the author of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR), which presents a detailed quarterly analysis of housing and the economy, and its associated housing market webinars.
About Leonidas Mourelatos
Leonidas joined Arch MI in 2022 from AIG where he worked for five years, most recently as Credit Risk Officer for Commercial Real Estate and previously as a Lead Risk Analyst covering sovereign and credit risk. Before AIG, he covered U.S. Country Risk at a national and sub-national level for market analytic firm BMI Research.