Arch MI’s HaMMR Predicts the Housing Slowdown Will Lead to a Soft Landing for Prices

GREENSBORO, N.C.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–
Home-price appreciation isn’t expected to experience a sustained decline on a national basis over the next year, even though there’s a strong chance the overall economy could enter a recession, according to the new edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) released today by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (Arch MI), a leading provider of mortgage insurance.

HaMMR also examines the impact of declining affordability and focuses on the similarities — and differences — between the surging mortgage costs facing current homebuyers and the home-price run-ups of the 1980s and the mid-2000s.

“Key factors bolstering our belief in a soft landing for national home prices are the still-tight inventory of homes for sale and the long-term fundamental shortage of homes,” said HaMMR author Parker Ross, Arch Global Mortgage Group’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Despite the slowdown in home sales activity, the market for existing homes has yet to recover to typical pre-pandemic inventory levels as the pace of new listings has slowed as well. We also estimate the U.S. was short 4 million homes as of 2020 due to over a decade of underbuilding. A persistently supply-constrained market is not a precursor to widespread or sustained price declines.”

Commentary resources:

• The Housing and Mortgage Market Review is posted at archmi.com/hammr. In the current issue, Arch MI’s economic team gauges the strength of the housing market and compares current economic measures to periods of recession in recent history.
• Parker Ross will host a Housing Update Webinar on Tuesday, Sept. 27, at 1 p.m. ET, covering the main HaMMR points and offering his perspective on the direction of the U.S. housing market. Registration is available at archmi.com/hammr.

About Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s U.S. mortgage insurance operation, Arch MI, is a leading provider of private insurance covering mortgage credit risk. Headquartered in Greensboro, North Carolina, Arch MI’s mission is to protect lenders against credit risk, while extending the possibility of responsible homeownership to qualified borrowers. Arch MI’s flagship mortgage insurer, Arch Mortgage Insurance Company, is licensed to write mortgage insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. For more information, visit archmi.com.

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The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a “safe harbor” for forward-looking statements. This release or any other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of Arch Capital Group Ltd. and its subsidiaries may include forward-looking statements , which reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included in or incorporated by reference in this release are forward-looking statements.

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The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Source: Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

Tag: arch-mortgage

ARCH MORTGAGE INSURANCE COMPANY® |230 NORTH ELM STREETGREENSBORO NC 27401 | ARCHMI.COM

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© 2022 Arch Mortgage Insurance Company. All Rights Reserved. Arch MI is a marketing term for Arch Mortgage Insurance Company and United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company. Arch Mortgage Insurance Company and The Housing and Mortgage Market Review are registered marks of Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. or its affiliates. HaMMR is a service mark of Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. or its affiliates.

Source: Arch Capital Group Ltd.