What’s Ahead for Housing in 2024?
Housing industry forecasts from Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the MBA call for mortgage rates to trend lower, low transaction volume and a low-single-digit increase in house prices over the next 12 months.
But remember, nearly four years ago — as the COVID-19 pandemic kept many people at home beginning in March 2020 — many forecasters predicted home sales would decline significantly from the previous year. At the time, stay-at-home orders were in place in many states — halting open houses and switching many house showings to Zoom walk-throughs.
What happened next as COVID-19 restrictions eased was a surge in sales of existing homes to a pace not seen since the early 2000s. Demand surged and buyers scrambled for more spacious properties, depleting inventory and driving up prices.
The rapid changes over a few short months in 2020 remind us that today’s housing market is far more dynamic than in the past. As a result, mortgage originators need a timely, reliable source of economic analysis based on fresh data weekly rather than forecasts for the next year or even 90 days out.
Current Housing Data and Analysis Delivered Weekly
For a weekly “at-a-glance” overview of housing’s performance, your reading list should include HaMMRSM Digest:
- Scan each issue’s three summary bullet points to find out what’s trending for the current week. In our Dec. 18 issue, for example, Arch’s economics team cheered a brighter labor picture, the Fed’s more flexible stance on interest rate cuts and the possibility of declining mortgage costs.
- Get an instant update on the week’s economic story with a half-page of text and more than two dozen charts highlighting key measures such as inflation, employment and home sales in top metros nationwide.
- Recalibrate your lending goals using the latest data analyzed by Arch Chief Economist Parker Ross and Director of Real Estate Economics Leonidas Mourelatos.
Follow Arch MI on LinkedIn to be notified as soon as each complimentary issue of the weekly HaMMR Digest is released.
Parker and his team are also responsible for the quarterly Housing Update Webinar — one of Arch MI’s most popular live events. The live webinar is just one of our complimentary resources available to help mortgage originators plan for the weeks and months ahead.
During our most recent quarterly Housing Update Webinar — which is available now on video — Parker expressed cautious optimism regarding 2024. “Looking at the (downward) move we’ve seen in rates recently, that’s a positive factor for the housing market going forward … We expect a bit of growth next year.”
The December Housing Update also tackled subjects such as possible economic pain points in 2024, the direction of home prices and builder sentiment. It also highlighted how forecasts might be changed by dozens of data releases scheduled for the end of the year — ranging from jobs data to home sales, inflation and business indicators. All of these will be covered by Arch’s expert analysts in upcoming issues of the weekly HaMMR Digest.
Insights Blog, which you’re reading now, provides additional coverage for mortgage originators on topics like comparing the cost of PMI vs. FHA, identifying overlooked buyer segments and boosting your social media engagement. You can also access our blog posts as voice recordings for listening on the go.
Capital Commentary looks at the housing-related challenges that policymakers in Washington, D.C. and state legislatures are wrestling with. Authored by Kirk Willison, Arch MI’s VP-Government and Industry Relations, each issue focuses on the implications of policy decision on housing.
Housing policy is also the focus of Kirk’s video interview series, PolicyCast. His guests have included industry leaders like FHFA Director Sandra Thompson, National Association of Home Builders CEO Jerry Howard and the head of Freddie Mac’s Single-Family Division, Mike Dawson.
The authors of the Insights blog always look forward to your feedback. If you’ve been reading HaMMR Digest since its 2022 debut (or started more recently), send us an email about your favorite elements of the weekly publication or any of our other data and analysis resources.