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HaMMR Digest covers the key indicators, trends and metrics
HaMMRSM (Housing and Mortgage Market Review®) author Parker Ross and Assistant Vice President of Global Real Estate Economics Leonidas Mourelatos analyze and deliver key housing and economic data weekly, providing a detailed snapshot of industry trends and their possible impact on your business.
The right decisions depend on the right data.
04/28/25 – Trade Impacts Percolating
As tariff costs rise, will consumers spend less, save less or take on more debt?
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Housing Update Webinar
Get expert analysis of the current housing market. In our complimentary Housing Update webinars, HaMMRSM Digest authors Parker Ross (Arch Chief Economist) and Leonidas Mourelatos (Assistant Vice President of Global Real Estate Economics) share their thoughts on the current factors affecting housing and where the industry is headed in the coming year.
Q1 Housing Update Webinar: When Will the Fog of Uncertainty Clear?
Get key spring homebuying predictions by Arch Chief Economist Parker Ross and Assistant Vice President of Real Estate Economics Leonidas Mourelatos.
HaMMR
Published quarterly, Arch MI’s Housing and Mortgage Market Review® (HaMMR) analyzed key economic factors and forecasted long-term industry trends. In 2022, it transitioned to HaMMR Digest, a weekly roundup of time-sensitive data that offers an up-to-date snapshot of the housing market.
See archive below.
Archive
Weekly HaMMR Digests
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04/28/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Trade Impacts Percolating
As tariff costs rise, will consumers spend less, save less or take on more debt?
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04/21/2025 — HaMMR Digest
At the Leading Edge
Will the Fed act too late to prop up the economy once the tariff shock hits real activity?
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04/14/2025 — HaMMR Digest
The Calm Before the Tariff Tempest
Tariff impacts are already hitting wholesalers. How long until consumers feel the bite?
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04/07/2025 — HaMMR Digest
The Last Hurrah?
Will consumers keep spending as their purchasing power is set to get squeezed by tariffs?
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03/31/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Confidence Games
Are households running out of cushion to absorb a tariff-induced inflation spike?
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03/24/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Transitory Stagflation
Will “transitory” tariff-related inflation help or hurt mortgage rates?
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03/17/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Not Out of the Woods
Are rate hikes back on the table after the recent rebound in inflation expectations?
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03/10/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Margins of Slack
How worried should the Fed be about building labor market slack?
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03/03/2025 — HaMMR Digest
It’s Complicated
Will the hard data catch down to the recent turn lower in economic expectations or is this just brief growth scare that subsides?
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02/10/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Hurts So Good
Is the labor market heating back up and what does it mean for the Fed?
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02/03/2025 — HaMMR Digest
The Art of the Deal
Tariff threat on our largest trading partners was put on ice, but will growth wobble under looming uncertainty?
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01/21/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Glass Half Full or Half Empty?
How will the Fed respond to cooling core inflation alongside solid consumption growth?
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01/13/2025 — HaMMR Digest
Summer Economic Chill Thawing in Winter?
Is the Fed done with rate cuts after the recent rebound in economic data?
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12/16/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Time to Pull on the Reins?
Will the Fed dial back the pace of rate cuts after the recent rebound in inflation?
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12/09/2024 — HaMMR Digest
The Labor Market is Fine…If You Have a Job
How will the Fed react to the renewed increase in the unemployment rate?
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11/18/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
Does inflation trending in the right direction give the Fed enough confidence to keep cutting rates at current per-meeting pace?
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11/04/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Decision Day
Will the Fed cut rates this week in response to slowing labor market or will the election give them pause?
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10/28/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Trying Times
If mortgage rates remain elevated, does that mean home prices have to correct to improve sales?
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10/21/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Unfettered
Will the Fed look through recent consumer strength and remain on a rate-cutting path?
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10/14/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Stickiness or Noise?
Will hotter than expected inflation give the Fed pause?
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10/07/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Don’t Lose the Forest for the Trees
Will the hot jobs report force the Fed to reassess its outlook?
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09/30/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Tug of War
Should the Fed hold off on further rate cuts after last week’s upward revisions to GDP growth?
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09/23/2024 — HaMMR Digest
The First Cut Is the Deepest?
When will home sales growth turn the corner?
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09/16/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Moment of Truth
Will the Fed cut rates enough on Wednesday to stimulate housing demand?
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09/09/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Still a Fighting Chance
Is it too late for the Fed to save the labor market?
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08/26/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Ready to (Re)Act
How much upside is there for housing with Fed rate cuts looming?
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08/19/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Parting Clouds or Calm before the Storm?
Is housing sending an ominous signal about the rest of the economy?
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08/06/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Rock You like a Hurricane
Was the July employment report as bad as the headlines?
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07/29/2024 — HaMMR Digest
A Plague on Both Houses
How many Fed rate cuts will it take to resuscitate the housing market?
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07/22/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Q2 Economic Report Card
Will Fed rate cuts come in time for the housing market?
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06/24/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Fed Should Pivot to Worrying about Growth
Is an Overly Patient Fed Sowing the Seeds of a Deeper Housing Shortage?
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06/17/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Anxiously Awaiting Confidence
How high must unemployment rise before the Fed finds its confidence?
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06/03/2024 — HaMMR Digest
A Little Bit Softer Now
Will cooler inflation in April be another head fake or the start of a meaningful disinflation trend?
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05/13/2024 — HaMMR Report
Banker Anxiety Remains Elevated
Are Homebuyers finally getting used to higher mortgage rates?
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05/06/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Dual Conundrum
Will rising unemployment smother any rebound in the housing market?
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04/29/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Of Hope and Progress
Will solid economic activity sustain with rates slated to stay higher for longer?
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04/22/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Waiting Game
Can the economy and housing market survive higher-for-longer rates?
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04/15/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Confidence Roller Coaster
How much longer will rates remain elevated after last week’s “hot” inflation data?
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04/08/2024 — HaMMR Digest
American Exceptionalism
Will the Fed cancel rate cuts in response to strong job growth?
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04/01/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Consumer Resiliency
Will consumer spending resiliency delay further cooling in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure?
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03/25/2024 — HaMMR Digest
No Surprises
Will the Fed cut rates in time to jolt the spring homebuying season?
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03/18/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Confidence Games
Will last week’s soft retail sales and hot inflation data alter the Fed’s outlook for rate cuts in ‘24?
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03/11/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Pick your Poison
Job growth is strong, but unemployment is rising. Which is sending the right signal?
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03/04/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Toe the Line
Was the pullback in January consumer discretionary spending a blip or a warning signal?
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02/26/2024 — HaMMR Digest
In Limbo
Will the early 2024 housing rebound be able to weather higher rates?
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02/20/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Signal Or Noise?
Should the Fed be worried about inflationary pressures reigniting?
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02/12/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Status Quo
Does the economy risk heating back up as credit conditions ease?
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02/05/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Decisions, Decisions
After the strong January jobs report, are rate cuts off the table?
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01/22/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Here Comes the Sun
Rates have come down, but when will it translate to higher home sales?
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01/08/2024 — HaMMR Digest
Back to Business
After proving most economists wrong in 2023 — but not the Arch Global Economics team — will the economy finally succumb to recession in 2024?
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12/18/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Gift That Keeps on Giving
Will “talking about rate cuts” mark the bottom for this housing cycle?
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12/11/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Naughty or Nice?
Is the labor market “glass half-full” or “glass half-empty”?
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12/04/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Lumps of Coal or Gelt in the Stocking?
Are Markets Getting Too Hopeful for Early Fed Rate Cuts?
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11/20/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Perfectly Plated
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11/06/2023 — HaMMR Digest
A Shot Across the Bow
The Fed is finally getting what it wants, but can it pull up in time to stick the landing?
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10/30/2023 — HaMMR Digest
No Trick All Treat…For Now
Fed will not be spooked by the third quarter’s strong GDP report.
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10/16/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Hurry Up and Wait
Are more rate hikes ahead in response to the recent rebound in inflation?
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10/09/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself
Will hot jobs report force the Fed’s hand?
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10/02/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Incoming Fog Delayed
Will financial market volatility be the final straw that breaks the economic cycle’s back?
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09/18/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Potential Tempest Ahead
Will a convergence of risk events derail the Fed’s soft landing hopes?
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09/12/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Storm Chasing
Is it time to panic, now that the unemployment rate has jumped to 3.8%?
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08/28/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Feared Tidal Wave Washes Ashore as a Ripple
Has the economy run out of steam after a hot start to 3Q23?
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08/21/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Mind the Rip Tide
Growth is holding firm despite surging interest rates. Can the Fed still stick the soft landing?
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08/15/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Anchor Beginning to Set
Cooling underlying inflation pressures too good to be true?
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08/07/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Calming Seas
Normalizing job growth, steady economic activity and cooling inflation. What’s the Fed not to like?
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07/24/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Sailing Through the Swells
Is the stage set for the Fed’s final rate hike?
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07/17/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Consumers Buoyed by Cooling Inflation
Can the Fed declare ‘Mission Accomplished’ on inflation?
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07/10/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Making Headway
How can home prices be within 1% of last year’s peak while job growth slows?
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06/26/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Tide is Turning
Can the housing market keep the broader economy out of recession?
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06/20/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Topsy-Turvy
Will the latest inflation data allow the Fed to end its hiking cycle?
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06/12/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Shipshape?
Could the recent surge in initial jobless claims indicate an impending economic downturn?
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06/06/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Cross Currents
What will define the next phase of this abnormal housing cycle?
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05/15/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Tidal Wave or Rough Chop?
Inflation continued to cool, so are Fed rate cuts ahead?
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05/08/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Let the Lighthouse Guide You Through the Storm
The Fed left the door cracked for further tightening, but will the upcoming inflation report blow it wide open?
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05/01/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Banking Squall Redux?
Will First Republic derail the Fed from hiking one more time?
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04/24/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Perfect Storm
Who is poised to successfully navigate through the housing market’s perfect storm?
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04/17/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Calm or Choppy Waters Ahead?
Smooth sailing ahead with inflation coming down and the Fed’s hiking cycle nearing an end?
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04/10/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Time to Trim the Sails
How can jobless claims and home prices be rising at the same time?
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04/04/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Squall Passes
Will the Fed continue to hike now that the banking squall has passed?
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03/28/2023 — HaMMR Digest
A Ballast in the Storm
Has the Fed reached the end of the road for this hiking cycle?
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03/21/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Fast and Furious
Can the Fed tango with inflation while a banking crisis simmers?
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03/13/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Panic Flips the Script
Will the Fed give up its inflation fight and focus on financial stability risk?
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03/06/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Eye of the Storm
Can the housing market and broader economy take one final blow from renewed rate volatility?
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02/28/2023 — HaMMR Digest
The Heat Is On
Strong consumer spending is driving up interest rates — decreasing overall housing demand — while new home sales increased.
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02/21/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Positive economic data indicates “stickier” inflation — pushing interest rates higher as recent housing gains stall.
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02/06/2023 — HaMMR Digest
A Doozy
Labor remains resilient as wage inflation cools, but housing will remain choppy until a recovery is established.
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01/30/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Mind the Details
4Q GDP growth shielding weakness as higher interest rates hamper manufacturing, consumer spending and, soon, labor.
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01/23/2023 — HaMMR Digest
Hope Springs Eternal
The direction of the overall economy remains uncertain, but tentative signs indicate housing may be nearing stabilization.
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01/09/2023 — HaMMR Digest
What Lies Ahead?
Economic activity and labor demand softened at year’s end, signaling more modest mortgage rate hikes in the months ahead.
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12/19/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Posturing
Growth, not inflation, will take center stage in 2023 as the key risk for analysts, with housing affordability expected to improve.
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12/12/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Looking Forward
All eyes are on the Fed meeting this week, which is expected to deliver a new hike even as mortgage rates trend lower.
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12/05/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Holiday Cheers and Jeers
The job market remains strong and the housing market recalibrates to rates that are likely to stay higher for longer.
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11/21/2022 — HaMMR Digest
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Even as disinflationary pressures build and household balance sheets remain strong, housing sales continue to drop.
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11/14/2022 — HaMMR Digest
False Dawn?
As core inflation slows significantly, the Fed is expected to end its hiking cycle with rates around 5%.
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11/07/2022 — HaMMR Digest
The Talons Come Out
Fed raises rates by 75 bps, the labor market remains tight and housing continues to slow.
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10/31/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Trick or Treat?
Despite some cooling of wage and inflation data, this week sees another rate hike as the housing market correction continues.
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10/24/2022 — HaMMR Digest
A Chill in the Air
Existing home sales cool as affordability deteriorates, inventory swells and the Fed contends with a strong labor market.
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10/17/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Missing the Mark
Significant rate hikes are increasingly likely over the next two months as forecasters continue underestimating inflation. Weaker jobs data could relieve pricing pressures.
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10/10/2022 — HaMMR Digest
It’s a Start
Job data cools but the Fed stands firm as labor remains tight and the data reflects a modest economic expansion.
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10/03/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Gut Check
Home-price growth positive for now but monthly declines expected, unless the Fed’s anticipated 2023 pivot stabilizes the market.
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09/26/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Message Received
The Fed takes a hawkish stance as the latest data supports more softening of the housing market.
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09/19/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Offsides
Mortgage rates surge as the Fed plans another hike, but an imminent recession remains unlikely.
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09/12/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Green Lights
Job growth slower but still strong, as mortgage rates surge to multi-decade high.
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08/29/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Pain on the Road to Stability
While key economic data improves, more rate hikes are on the way – and likely to last longer than expected.
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08/22/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Housing Recession?
Home sales, construction and builder sentiment drop, but a healthier equilibrium is on the way.
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08/15/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Don’t Get Your Hopes Up
Headline CPI declines, but overall inflation remains high despite cooling energy and core goods costs.
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08/08/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Whiplash
A blowout July employment report, upward pressure on wage gains and a cooling housing market.
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08/01/2022 — HaMMR Digest
Technical Foul
Another 75bps rate hike, the second straight decline in real GDP and home prices continue to decelerate.
Quarterly HaMMR Reports
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09/20/2022 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Issue 3-2022
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Issue 3-2022
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06/02/2022 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Issue 2-2022
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Issue 2-2022
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02/24/2022 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2022
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2022
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04/07/2021 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Spring 2021
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Spring 2021
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01/07/2021 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2021
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2021
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08/01/2020 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Summer 2020
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Summer 2020
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01/01/2020 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2020
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2020
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07/01/2019 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Summer 2019
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Summer 2019
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04/01/2019 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Spring 2019
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Spring 2019
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01/01/2019 — HaMMR Report
HaMMR – Winter 2019
Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) – Winter 2019
About the HaMMR Digest
Arch Global Chief Economist (and author of the quarterly HaMMR report) Parker Ross and AVP of Global Real Estate Economics Leonidas Mourelatos cover the week’s headlines in the U.S. and abroad, break down the data and assess the impact on the housing market and the larger economy.
Each HaMMR Digest release provides detailed, current information that you can use, share and build on in your business. Follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter to receive notification of each new release.
About Parker Ross
As Chief Economist, Parker is responsible for overall economic surveillance and forecasting for the Global Mortgage group. He publishes a detailed weekly analysis of the U.S. economy and housing market (HaMMRSM Digest), hosts a quarterly webinar for the public and is a widely sought-after speaker for industry events.
About Leonidas Mourelatos
Leonidas joined Arch MI in 2022 from AIG where he worked for five years, most recently as Credit Risk Officer for Commercial Real Estate and previously as a Lead Risk Analyst covering sovereign and credit risk. Before AIG, he covered U.S. Country Risk at a national and sub-national level for market analytic firm BMI Research.